The Engine

What is actually under the board. Every number on this page comes out of the live system, not a slide.

01

Real prices, not vibes

Odds are pulled from US sportsbooks every 30 minutes for every game inside seven days. The best price and the book's name sit on every leg, so you know exactly what you are being asked to take.

5 books today: BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, Bovada, DraftKings, FanDuel · 2 games in the window · 522 priced legs · last pull 12:04 PM ET
02

Every player's own base rate

The last 17 games for NFL and the current season for MLB, measured against the exact line the book is posting today. Not a season average. Not a narrative.

19,400 NFL game logs stored · last 17 games per player
03

A model that knows when it's wrong

Every pick is logged before kickoff and graded after. The calibration layer refits nightly on the graded history, so the number on the card means what it says. Until a market has 30 graded picks, the card shows the base rate instead of a model score.

raw Brier 0.405 · calibrated Brier n/a · 0 calibrated markets
04

Graded in public, at the price we posted

Wins, losses and units at book price, on the record page, forever. Nothing gets deleted. See the record.

692 picks graded so far
05

Closing line value

We record where the line closed and whether we beat it. Beating the close is the clearest sign the price was wrong when we took it.

+0.015 decimal points per bet across 53 closes
06

Why we show the losses

Every tout on the internet shows you the wins. The books know exactly how good they are, and so should you. If this system stops beating the base rates, you will see it here before we do.

Nothing is ever deleted.