📊 Model Performance
Every top pick is logged, resolved after games finish, and used to auto-tune the model.
Graded
165/618
761 total tracked
Hit rate
26.7%
base rate 38.2% · lift -11.5pp
ROI at book price
-0.81u
12 priced picks · fair -0.56u
Brier score
—
raw 0.411 · baseline 0.264 · baseline better
Closing-line value: not enough closes yet (0/20 priced picks with a recorded close).
By source
💰 Value Board
59.5%
75/126 graded
base rate 65.7% · -6.1pp lift
ROI -0.77u per unit at book price
💥 HR Grade Board
18.3%
90/492 graded
base rate 18.5% · -0.2pp lift
ROI -1.00u per unit at book price
🏷️ By grade
A+
60/98 · 61.2% vs 65.7% base · -4.4pp
-0.77u
A
25/68 · 36.8% vs 23.2% base · +13.6pp
n/a
C+
7/28 · 25.0% · n/a (no baseline)
n/a
A-
25/102 · 24.5% vs 20.5% base · +4.0pp
n/a
B+
34/193 · 17.6% vs 17.3% base · +0.3pp
-1.00u
B-
5/41 · 12.2% · n/a (no baseline)
n/a
B
9/88 · 10.2% vs 16.4% base · -6.2pp
n/a
🧠 Learned factor liftwhich edges actually work
platoon edge
58/187 · base 26.6% · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
+4.5pp
31.0%
hr prone pitcher
51/251 · base 19.0% · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
+1.3pp
20.3%
elite power
20/87 · base 22.1% · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
+0.8pp
23.0%
weak pitcher
44/75 · base n/a · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
n/a
58.7%
hittable pitcher
36/60 · base n/a · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
n/a
60.0%
high vegas
51/185 · base n/a · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
n/a
27.6%
hr stopper
9/55 · base n/a · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
n/a
16.4%
hr park
15/67 · base n/a · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
n/a
22.4%
due factor
5/13 · base n/a · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
n/a
38.5%
low vegas
5/34 · base n/a · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
n/a
14.7%
platoon disadvantage
1/10 · base n/a · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
n/a
10.0%
hot form
101/386 · base 28.1% · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
-1.9pp
26.2%
hot weather
5/16 · base 35.5% · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
-4.2pp
31.3%
leadoff slot
51/202 · base 34.7% · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
-9.5pp
25.2%
cold form
4/11 · base 53.5% · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
-17.2pp
36.4%
heart of order
58/204 · base 48.0% · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
-19.6pp
28.4%
pitcher park
10/63 · base 63.3% · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
-47.4pp
15.9%
elite pitcher
0/3 · base 63.3% · coefficient 1.000 · no measured edge
-63.3pp
0.0%
Lift compares each factor's hit rate to the base rate of those same players — never a flat 50%. A coefficient only moves off 1.000 once 30+ graded picks show positive lift; until then the factor is greyed out as "no measured edge". Moves are capped at ±25% under 100 picks.
📋 Recent picks
Jordan Walker
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · model 85%
no line
no line
A+
Angel Genao
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · base 58% · model 69%
-208
BetOnline.ag
A-
Chase DeLauter
2026-09-04 · HR · HR · base 10% · model 67%
+480
BetRivers
B
Nathaniel Lowe
2026-09-04 · HR · HR · base 13% · model 66%
+500
BetRivers
B
Spencer Torkelson
2026-09-04 · HR · HR · base 15% · model 60%
+550
BetRivers
B-
Jo Adell
2026-09-04 · HR · HR · base 13% · model 63%
+430
BetRivers
B-
José Ramírez
2026-09-04 · HR · HR · base 10% · model 61%
+500
BetRivers
B-
Patrick Bailey
2026-09-04 · HR · HR · base 9% · model 59%
+800
BetRivers
C+
Dillon Dingler
2026-09-04 · HR · HR · base 18% · model 58%
+600
BetRivers
C+
Kevin McGonigle
2026-09-04 · HR · HR · base 10% · model 60%
+700
BetRivers
B-
Travis Bazzana
2026-09-04 · HR · HR · base 8% · model 60%
+700
BetRivers
B-
Gleyber Torres
2026-09-04 · HR · HR · base 10% · model 55%
+700
BetRivers
C+
Angel Genao
2026-09-04 · HR · HR · base 8% · model 56%
+850
BetRivers
C+
Hao-Yu Lee
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · base 58% · model 73%
-174
DraftKings
A+
Jo Adell
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · base 58% · model 78%
-200
BetRivers
A+
Steven Kwan
2026-09-04 · HR · HR · base 2% · model 61%
+1200
BetRivers
B-
Riley Greene
2026-09-04 · HR · HR · base 13% · model 58%
+540
BetRivers
C+
Max Clark
2026-09-04 · HR · HR · base 7% · model 56%
+1100
BetRivers
C+
Kevin McGonigle
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · base 73% · model 79%
-216
DraftKings
A+
Nathaniel Lowe
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · base 56% · model 69%
-180
BetRivers
A-
Steven Kwan
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · base 64% · model 85%
-274
DraftKings
A+
Travis Bazzana
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · base 57% · model 69%
-150
BetRivers
A+
Ben Malgeri
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · base 44% · model 67%
-150
BetMGM
A+
Randy Arozarena
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · model 90%
no line
no line
A+
Alec Burleson
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · model 90%
no line
no line
A
Jordan Lawlar
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · model 81%
no line
no line
A
Elly De La Cruz
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · base 69% · model 90%
-190
BetMGM
A+
Mickey Gasper
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · base 63% · model 89%
-193
DraftKings
A+
Gabriel Moreno
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · base 69% · model 87%
-198
DraftKings
A+
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-04 · 1+ Hit · Value · base 68% · model 92%
-263
DraftKings
A+
📅 Daily record
2026-09-03
6/33 · 18.2%
-0.81u
2026-08-17
10/35 · 28.6%
n/a
2026-08-15
1/16 · 6.3%
n/a
2026-08-12
3/17 · 17.6%
n/a
2026-08-11
9/20 · 45.0%
n/a
2026-08-10
0/15 · 0.0%
n/a
2026-08-09
7/21 · 33.3%
n/a
2026-08-01
9/24 · 37.5%
n/a
2026-07-31
5/19 · 26.3%
n/a
2026-07-30
3/15 · 20.0%
n/a
2026-07-29
1/15 · 6.7%
n/a
2026-07-28
9/27 · 33.3%
n/a
2026-07-27
8/36 · 22.2%
n/a
2026-07-26
9/36 · 25.0%
n/a
🔓 Public data
Every tracked pick and its graded result is open. No key required.
JSON feed (today + last graded slate, per sport)
/api/public/picks-feedCSV export (full history)
/api/public/picks-export